Rates Are Still Up 30% — But Fuel Is Eating the Raise

Rates slipped a couple of cents last week. Do not let that headline fool you — and do not let the year-over-year numbers fool you either. The real story for a car hauler right now is not the rate. It is what is left of the rate after the fuel pump takes its cut.

The news

DAT Freight & Analytics data reported by Trucking Dive on October 28 shows national spot linehaul rates eased in the week beginning October 17: dry van down 2 cents to $2.24 a mile, reefer down 3 cents to $2.73, and flatbed down 2 cents to $2.63. Those are linehaul figures — they exclude the fuel surcharge.

Against last year, though, the market is still strong: linehaul rates are running 33% above last year for dry van, 31% for reefer, and 28% for flatbed, and DAT says all modes are 23% to 29% above their nine-year seasonal averages for late October. The reason is supply, not a freight boom: truck posts on DAT One are still 20% to 26% below a year ago, so there are simply fewer trucks chasing the work.

DAT’s own October market posts put the other half of the story plainly: “Fuel is eating the rate gains.” Diesel at Pilot Flying J averaged $6.47 a gallon on October 24, up about 50% from late winter, and DAT says fuel is now about 43% of a dry van carrier’s operating costs, up from 32% in late winter. DAT’s 35-day forecast has van linehaul holding near $2.24 through late November, with reefer rising toward $2.78 and flatbed easing toward $2.59 — and DAT analyst Dean Croke flagged higher fuel prices as the thing that could weigh on carriers heading into the holidays.

What this means for car haulers

Quote the all-in number, not the linehaul headline. A rate that is 30% better than last year is not 30% more money in your pocket when diesel is up 50% and fuel has gone from a third of your costs to more than two-fifths. Before you say yes to a lane, run it at today’s pump price — not the price in the fuel table you built last winter.

Your surcharge language matters more than your rate negotiation. If your fuel surcharge is pegged to an old index level or a monthly average, a fast diesel spike comes straight out of your margin. Haulers who index the surcharge weekly, and say so up front, are the ones keeping the raise the market is offering.

Tight capacity is still your friend — if you price like it. Truck posts 20-plus percent below last year means shippers and dealers do not have a line of legal, insured carriers waiting behind you. That is leverage. A good dispatching partner who watches lane-level rates and fuel daily earns his percentage in a market exactly like this one — strong headline rates, fast-moving costs.

Watch November, not just this week. DAT expects rates to hold near current levels into late November, but Croke’s warning was specific: if freight cools faster than capacity returns in early November, the soft spot shows up quickly. Book the good lanes while the capacity story is still tight.

The bottom line

This is a good rate market and a brutal cost market at the same time. The haulers making money in it are not the ones chasing the highest headline rate — they are the ones who know, lane by lane, what is left after fuel. Do that math on every load and the 30% raise is real. Skip it, and you are donating it to the pump.

Talk to us about dispatching that keeps you loaded — and call Victor at 954-947-3096.

Sources: Trucking Dive, “How truck spot rates are shifting” (Oct. 28, 2026 update, DAT Freight & Analytics weekly data) — https://www.TruckingDive.com/news/truck-freight-rates-changes-tracker/715709/ ; DAT Freight & Analytics, October Freight Focus / market posts (Oct. 2026, diesel and fuel-share figures via DAT’s LinkedIn posts). Spot figures are national dry van / reefer / flatbed linehaul averages excluding fuel surcharge — car-hauler lane rates vary; they are market context, not a rate quote for any specific load.