November just opened with the tightest truck capacity of the season — and the shippers who waited to book their holiday freight are the ones about to feel it.
The news
Truckload tender rejection rates — the share of contracted loads carriers turn down — are running near 14%, and industry forecasts say they could reach 20% by December. In plain terms: carriers are saying no to roughly one in seven loads they already agreed to haul, and by the holidays it could be one in five.
Capacity is leaving the market at the same time. About 16 carriers have recently filed for bankruptcy or restructuring, citing fuel expenses they could not sustain. Every closed carrier is trucks that will not be there when November and December freight shows up.
The rate moves are already in writing. Old Dominion put through a 4.9% general rate increase on October 5, following 5.9% at ArcBest in June and 7.1% at Saia in July. The parcel side tells the same story: peak-season surcharges are live, ground fuel surcharges are running near 30%, and DHL Express and FedEx have both announced 5.9% average increases for 2027.
Freight is coming whether trucks are ready or not. Three-week forward projections at the Port of Long Beach show import volumes running about 50% above last year, domestic intermodal is up about 8%, and U.S. manufacturing has expanded nine straight months (September PMI 54.5). Anderson Trucking Service’s November outlook adds the seasonal squeeze on top: diesel around $6.28 a gallon in late October, and fewer drivers available as Thanksgiving and Christmas approach.
One honest caveat: consumer confidence fell to 81.9 in September, its lowest since 2014 — so this is a capacity crunch more than a demand boom. The loads are there; the trucks are what is scarce.
What this means for car haulers
Scarce trucks set the price — and right now, that is you. When one in seven contracted loads gets rejected, dealers and shippers stop shopping for the cheapest hauler and start shopping for the hauler who actually shows up. A legal, insured, ready-to-work car hauler is the scarce resource in this market. Price like it, and do not apologize for it.
Book holiday work early — yours and theirs. Dealer moves, auction runs, and snowbird-season transport all pile into the same November–December window, right as drivers take holiday time off. If a dealer tells you a load is coming “sometime before Christmas,” get it on the calendar now. The week-of call is the one that gets rejected — by you or by somebody else.
Put a fuel line in every quote. Sixteen carriers did not go under because freight disappeared — they went under because their costs outran their rates, with fuel at the top of the list. At $6-plus diesel, a rate you quoted in September is a pay cut in November. Fuel adjustments are not greed; they are how you stay off that bankruptcy list.
This is where dispatching earns its cut. In a rejection market, the money moves to whoever re-prices fastest and keeps trucks on paying lanes instead of deadheading home. If your rates are being set by someone who is not watching this market weekly, you are donating the difference.
The bottom line
Capacity is tight, it gets tighter into December, and the carriers still standing are the ones with pricing power. Run clean, quote with fuel in the number, and get your holiday work booked before the rejection rate does it for you.
Keep your truck loaded with our dispatching service — new routes and steady freight for car haulers, priced with the market. Call Victor at 954-947-3096.
Sources: Breakbulk.News, “US Freight Rates Climb as Peak Season Surcharges Hit and Port Imports Surge 50%” (freight market outlook, crawled November 2, 2026) — https://breakbulk.news/us-freight-rates-climb-as-peak-season-surcharges-hit-and-port-imports-surge-50/ ; Anderson Trucking Service (ATS), “November 2026 Freight Market Update” (updated October 28, 2026) — https://www.atsinc.com/blog/november-trucking-industry-what-to-know . Tender-rejection forecasts and carrier-filing counts are the outlook’s reported figures, not guarantees; your rates depend on your lanes and contracts.
