If your rates feel like they should be higher, the newest national freight numbers agree with you — and they explain exactly why.
The news
Reuters reported on October 29 that U.S. shippers in the third quarter paid the most to move freight since 2021, according to the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index released Thursday. Shipper spending surged 32.1% from the third quarter last year — but national shipment volumes rose only 0.5% year over year.
Read that again: almost a third more money chasing basically the same amount of freight.
Spending rose in every region, led by the Southwest at +51.6%. The index pointed to two cost drivers: diesel pushed above $6 a gallon nationally amid the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, and a reduction in available truck drivers following federal immigration enforcement, which tightened the supply of trucks. “Outlays are rising much faster than freight volume,” said Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations. U.S. Bank’s Bobby Holland put it plainly: “Even where volumes are flat or declining, tighter capacity and higher operating costs are driving spending higher.”
What this means for car haulers
This is a capacity market, not a demand market — price it that way. When volume is flat and spending is up 32%, the money is going to the carriers who are still standing: legal, insured, and available. Dealers and shippers aren’t paying more because they’re generous; they’re paying more because trucks are scarce. Quote your real number instead of last year’s number.
Your costs are the shippers’ costs, too. Diesel above $6 is in this index for a reason — it’s squeezing every carrier in America, which is why capacity keeps leaving. Build fuel into your quotes openly, lane by lane, instead of eating it and hoping volume makes up for it. It won’t: volume is up half a percent.
Regional strength is real — chase the hot lanes. A 51.6% spending jump in the Southwest says money is moving there. If your lanes are soft, your trailer may simply be in the wrong geography. This is where a dispatching partner who watches national lane data daily earns their keep — putting your truck where the spending is, not just where the loads are closest.
Drivers are a pricing input now. The index ties higher rates directly to fewer available drivers. If you run with a dependable CDL driver, you hold capacity the market is short of — that belongs in your rate conversation, and in what you pay to keep that driver.
The bottom line
Flat freight, record-level spending, scarce trucks: that’s the market telling every working car hauler the same thing — your capacity is worth more than it was a year ago. Believe the data when you quote.
Talk to us about dispatching that keeps you loaded — new routes and steady freight for car haulers. Call Victor at 954-947-3096.
Sources: Reuters (Lisa Baertlein), “US shipper costs hit five-year high, even as demand stalls, US Bank data shows” (October 29, 2026), reporting the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for Q3 2026 — https://srnnews.com/us-shipper-costs-hit-five-year-high-even-as-demand-stalls-us-bank-data-shows/ . Figures are national truck freight data, not a rate guarantee for any specific lane or load.
